The U.S. automobile industry may experience a paradigm shift from gas-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), according to auto executives recently interviewed on NPR’s Weekend Edition Saturday.
“Electrification, you cannot stop it anymore – it’s coming,” says Elmer Kades, a managing director with the New York City-based global consulting firm AlixPartners. “We have fantastic growth rates, between 50 and 60 percent on a global level.”
During the broadcast, Wall Street Journal’s automotive columnist Dan Neil, touted electric vehicles superiority, and he speculated that consumers could retire gas-powered vehicles before needing to replace the cars. Neil likened gas-powered cars to plasma televisions that were phased out by the less expensive, higher-quality LCD versions.
In 2017, electric vehicles sold a record 1.1 million worldwide. Worldwide EV sales will continue to surge to 30 million in 2030 as they become cheaper than internal combustion engine cars, according to a recent BloombergNEF report.
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While the quiet hum of EVs rolling through the streets may be inevitable, expert disagree about timeline. During the NPR show, Felipe Munoz, a global analyst at JATO, predicted EVs will outsell gas-powered cars by 2030. On the other hand, Bill Visnic, editorial director at the Society of Automotive Engineers, sees gas and diesel-powered cars staying around for “quite some time.”
Sam Abuelsamid, an auto analyst with Navigant says, forecasts that the tipping point will occur about the mid-2020s, when EVs will cost about the same or less than gas-powered vehicles.